A Long Road Ahead in Iraq
Rather than engage in a serious debate about America’s future course in Iraq, President Bush and the Republican Congress have again opted for sound bites and partisanship. Yet all the choreographed posturing and a one-week flurry of good news cannot blot out the larger picture of dubious trends and dismal prospects. Not only is the glass less than half full. The water level, viewed over months rather than days, is not noticeably rising.
Take the police. It is meaningless to talk about Iraq’s taking charge of its own security when the police forces that patrol its cities and run its prisons are rife with sectarian militias and death squads that would sooner wage a civil war than prevent one.
While Mr. Bush holds out visions of Iraqi security forces standing up so that Americans can stand down, Iraq’s deputy justice minister more candidly told The Washington Post last week that “we cannot control the prisons; it’s as simple as that.” He added that “our jails are infiltrated by the militias from top to bottom, from Basra to Baghdad.”
A new interior minister can change that only if backed by a new configuration of political power, no longer subject to vetoes by parties like the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq that run some of the very militias that must be curbed.
Consider also the level of sectarian violence, a clear indicator of whether Iraq is moving toward national unity or sectarian conflict. In May 2003, there were five recorded incidents of sectarian violence. In May 2004, there were 10. In May 2005, there were 20. Last month there were 250. This is a very discouraging trend, as is the predictable response: thousands of families fleeing their homes.
New York Times | Editorial (read more. . .)